Are We Being Misled on Crime Statistics?

And props to these cops

You’re no doubt aware that the truth is more difficult to come by these days. We’re led to believe things that may or may not be true - and worse, we’re making important decisions based on these perceptions.

This holds true when it comes to what officials are telling us about crime. At least in some cases, the news reports and public relations bites originating from city government aren’t matching the reality on the ground.

Case in point.

Earlier this summer, CBS News Chicago ran a segment about how violent crime is trending down. Their report, per numbers from the Chicago Police Department, indicates that murders are down 1.49% from June of last year, shootings are down 6.3% and car jackings are down 27.9%.

It certainly looks promising on the surface . . . until you dig deeper.

The reporter failed to mention that as recently as 2021, the CPD had no police officers to send to 52% of the 788,000 high-priority calls. This information is from the data journalists at Wirepoints, a must-read if you want real Chicago intel without the fluff. Given the Department’s continued staffing shortage (estimates are that the CPD is about 1,500 officers short, despite lowering their hiring standards), it’s hard to see how this scenario has changed.

Similarly, my local newspaper, The Wisconsin State Journal, ran a story this past weekend that makes it appear that city government has crime under control. It reads, in part, that:

“The number of shots-fired incidents continues to decline. It peaked at 250 in 2020, then dropped to 231 in 2021, 184 in 2022, and 107 through September 4 of this year.”

And per the mayor,

“It’s important to note that this significant decrease is unusual when compared to communities our size around the country, who continue to struggle with an uptick in gun violence brought on by the pandemic.”

I’m not ready to celebrate just yet. There’s no mention of the 19 attempted homicides this year thus far, per a confidential police source of radio host Vicki McKenna. If you’d like to listen to the segment (highly recommended), it starts at about 1:33:05 and features an interview with retired Chief Mike Koval.

The source also mentioned that officers confiscate, on average, between four to six illegal guns per week; that there are two or more overdoses per night; and that stranger attacks have increased.

This also confirms what a few informed sources have told me - that the PR being pushed by city management doesn’t align with the reality of what’s happening on the ground.

New Presentation on Misleading Crime Statistics

The misalignment between the truth and what we’re being told doesn’t get the coverage it deserves. It’s why I’ve started work on a presentation about how crime statistics can be misleading and are even manipulated.

I’ll be working on this presentation in partnership with my women’s network and am in the preliminary research stage. We plan to tape early next year.

If you’re a bonafide expert in this vertical or know of someone who is, please reach out. I’m also interested in hearing your stories about how city PR and media reports don’t align with the reality of what’s happening on the streets.

It will be similar in format to how the war on police harms women presentation.

Anyone can rattle off statistics. Without context (which is often missing in these stories), however, they’re meaningless. Is crime really down? We have a right to the truth.

Your Help is Needed!

The piece I wrote for Inside Sources about politicians missing in action on the policing issue has been syndicated, thus far appearing in seven newspapers across the country. I wrote, in part:

“While the left may have set this in motion, the Republican response has been anemic. It’s not just that Republicans frequently miss opportunities to speak out when officers are unfairly under fire. Their legislative efforts have also been lackluster.”

The impetus for my writing this is to motivate elected officials to co-sponsor the Protect & Serve Act, which if passed, has the potential to deter violence towards police officers by mandating prison time for offenders.

While this is a great start, we need to continue to get the word out on this critical legislation. Would you consider writing a short letter to the editor of your local newspaper? If interested, please email me if you’d like help with talking points.

The Fraternal Order of Police has made this bill a priority. If you haven’t already, please contact your U.S. representative. You can also use FOP’s automated form to send a quick letter.

Props to These Cops

You’ve probably heard about New Mexico’s governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham ordering restrictions on open and concealed carry in public areas for 30 days. A lot of people were rightfully outraged. What I was more focused on was how local law enforcement would respond.

They stayed true to the U.S. Constitution. As Police Law News reported:

“The first public statement issued in regards to this “emergency order” was from the Albuquerque Police Officers’ Association (APOA). This is the organization that represents Albuquerque Police officers (ie. the police union).

The APOA expressed that they are “deeply concerned and alarmed” by the actions taken by MLG and that this is a “clear violation of of civil rights that places officers at odds with their sworn oath to uphold the constitution of the State of New Mexico and the United States of America . . .

“It is important to note that the public statement released by the APOA was drafted and made public before the statements by city leaders. This was a risk taken by the APOA - who chose to err on the side of the constitution.”

Police Law News is spot-on when he writes:

“This is a real-life example of what police will do (and how police should respond) when encouraged to violate civil liberties by an out of control and tyrannical governor.”

Something to think about: How would police officials in your jurisdiction respond if presented with a similar situation? The thing is, we shouldn’t even have to ask this question. It should be a given.

Best to all of you. : )

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For the Blue is a solutions-based initiative. I’m just an American patriot asking questions. I don’t work with any political party and I answer to nobody. For me, the health of the nation, due process (including for police officers), the rule of law, and respect for individual liberties, will always transcend party affiliation. I welcome your thoughts, even if you disagree; though personal attacks will be ignored. You can reach me at fortheblue@substack.com.